{ "assumptions": { "annual_cpi": { "CUUR0000SA0": { "2005": 195.292, "2006": 201.592, "2007": 207.342, "2008": 215.303, "2009": 214.537, "2010": 218.056, "2011": 224.939, "2012": 229.594, "2013": 232.957, "2014": 236.736, "2015": 237.017, "2016": 240.007, "2017": 245.12, "2018": 251.107, "2019": 255.657, "2020": 258.811, "2021": 270.97, "2022": 292.655, "2023": 304.702, "2024": 313.689, "2025": 321.943, "2026": 331.359277000912, "2027": 339.8008709651403, "2028": 347.8250289566906, "2029": 355.78327600518645, "2030": 363.8363948656546, "2031": 372.0542910837588, "2032": 380.4529430699365, "2033": 389.0383427281018, "2034": 397.817480612821, "2035": 406.79634862800816 }, "CUUR0000SAA": { "2005": 119.542, "2006": 119.45, "2007": 118.998, "2008": 118.907, "2009": 120.078, "2010": 119.503, "2011": 122.111, "2012": 126.265, "2013": 127.411, "2014": 127.514, "2015": 125.902, "2016": 126.045, "2017": 125.612, "2018": 125.654, "2019": 124.052, "2020": 118.079, "2021": 120.993, "2022": 127.081, "2023": 130.579, "2024": 131.483, "2025": 131.311, "2026": 135.15162007643204, "2027": 138.59469585393546, "2028": 141.86751188046333, "2029": 145.1134447884161, "2030": 148.39807309431785, "2031": 151.74990919665734, "2032": 155.17547021508912, "2033": 158.67720006948366, "2034": 162.25794999968983, "2035": 165.92016392557807 }, "CUUR0000SAF": { "2005": 191.167, "2006": 195.65, "2007": 203.3, "2008": 214.225, "2009": 218.249, "2010": 219.984, "2011": 227.866, "2012": 233.67, "2013": 236.966, "2014": 242.448, "2015": 246.804, "2016": 247.653, "2017": 249.837, "2018": 253.346, "2019": 258.013, "2020": 266.625, "2021": 276.814, "2022": 303.319, "2023": 320.488, "2024": 327.659, "2025": 336.618, "2026": 346.4634954184219, "2027": 355.28987921011986, "2028": 363.67979921086436, "2029": 372.0008038761951, "2030": 380.4210048576516, "2031": 389.01349417764243, "2032": 397.7949785841466, "2033": 406.77172310765627, "2034": 415.9510369504123, "2035": 425.33918514290684 }, "CUUR0000SAF11": { "2005": 189.783, "2006": 193.108, "2007": 201.254, "2008": 214.139, "2009": 215.122, "2010": 215.831, "2011": 226.199, "2012": 231.75, "2013": 233.855, "2014": 239.449, "2015": 242.25, "2016": 239.071, "2017": 238.594, "2018": 239.659, "2019": 241.767, "2020": 250.213, "2021": 258.886, "2022": 288.471, "2023": 302.909, "2024": 306.554, "2025": 313.259, "2026": 322.42128499153176, "2027": 330.63517777267685, "2028": 338.4428943817507, "2029": 346.1864779110238, "2030": 354.0223742066767, "2031": 362.01860320183147, "2032": 370.19071230977306, "2033": 378.5445318104834, "2034": 387.0868636972747, "2035": 395.8235382501288 }, "CUUR0000SAH1": { "2005": 224.425, "2006": 232.133, "2007": 240.611, "2008": 246.666, "2009": 249.354, "2010": 248.396, "2011": 251.646, "2012": 257.084, "2013": 263.056, "2014": 270.513, "2015": 278.803, "2016": 288.23, "2017": 297.803, "2018": 307.663, "2019": 318.053, "2020": 325.886, "2021": 334.575, "2022": 354.235, "2023": 380.643, "2024": 400.561, "2025": 415.164, "2026": 427.3068303296131, "2027": 438.1927508700966, "2028": 448.540363734498, "2029": 458.80298065004433, "2030": 469.18794021924566, "2031": 479.7853896605847, "2032": 490.61593405257173, "2033": 501.68730029964814, "2034": 513.0085031236622, "2035": 524.5872694290553 }, "CUUR0000SAH2": { "2005": 179.042, "2006": 194.7, "2007": 200.632, "2008": 220.018, "2009": 210.696, "2010": 214.187, "2011": 220.367, "2012": 218.986, "2013": 225.208, "2014": 234.589, "2015": 230.129, "2016": 228.855, "2017": 237.315, "2018": 241.554, "2019": 242.598, "2020": 243.949, "2021": 260.54, "2022": 298.208, "2023": 305.478, "2024": 314.768, "2025": 332.089, "2026": 341.8020299865376, "2027": 350.5096599023507, "2028": 358.7866983944314, "2029": 366.99574876697545, "2030": 375.30266082673137, "2031": 383.77954318532903, "2032": 392.44287781114093, "2033": 401.29884544230686, "2034": 410.3546569399897, "2035": 419.6164930423292 }, "CUUR0000SEED": { "2005": 94.85, "2006": 95.758, "2007": 98.247, "2008": 100.451, "2009": 102.392, "2010": 102.379, "2011": 101.209, "2012": 101.685, "2013": 101.559, "2014": 101.131, "2015": 99.31, "2016": 98.846, "2017": 91.75, "2018": 90.375, "2019": 89.358, "2020": 92.195, "2021": 94.429, "2022": 94.785, "2023": 95.333, "2024": 94.63, "2025": 93.953, "2026": 96.70096306509751, "2027": 99.16448324637538, "2028": 101.50618260241085, "2029": 103.82864709130277, "2030": 106.17879813138615, "2031": 108.57703633932837, "2032": 111.02802471322485, "2033": 113.53351187736136, "2034": 116.09553789340464, "2035": 118.71585138564046 }, "CUUR0000SEFV": { "2005": 193.417, "2006": 199.383, "2007": 206.659, "2008": 215.769, "2009": 223.272, "2010": 226.114, "2011": 231.401, "2012": 237.987, "2013": 243.069, "2014": 248.981, "2015": 256.101, "2016": 262.695, "2017": 268.826, "2018": 275.893, "2019": 284.41, "2020": 293.944, "2021": 307.296, "2022": 330.822, "2023": 354.256, "2024": 368.743, "2025": 382.378, "2026": 393.56189642593483, "2027": 403.58814273926885, "2028": 413.1185921806079, "2029": 422.57075790531616, "2030": 432.135604737296, "2031": 441.89616086085283, "2032": 451.871404146685, "2033": 462.0684512963044, "2034": 472.49560512814156, "2035": 483.1599823437084 } }, "classification": "conditional_rolling_window_research_scenarios", "donor_price_index": "P[y=origin]=FCSUti_factor(origin,y); nominal scale=P[target_collection_year]/P[donor_collection_year]", "donor_rule": "Latest observed same-season quarter, never a projected donor; preserve original NEWID, weights, counts, ordering and missingness", "housing_share_formula": "Published BLS_share_anchor * (0.82 * SU_mean_target / replication_target) / (0.82 * SU_mean_anchor / replication_anchor); supplied published historical shares returned directly", "housing_share_source": { "anchor_year": 2025, "definition": "Total Shelter Share + Total Utilities Share; telephone/internet excluded; corrected revised BLS series", "id": "bls-spm-shares" }, "inflation_rates": { "2026": 0.029248273765579702, "2027": 0.025475653015156308, "2028": 0.023614294950919934, "2029": 0.022880029859745354, "2030": 0.022634899961825994, "2031": 0.022586789925561623, "2032": 0.02257372697332216, "2033": 0.02256625901981013, "2034": 0.022566253555256655, "2035": 0.022570320442821146 }, "latest_observed_quarter": "2025Q1", "monetary_columns": [ "FOODPQ", "FOODCQ", "FDHOMEPQ", "FDHOMECQ", "FDAWAYPQ", "FDAWAYCQ", "GROCERPQ", "GROCERCQ", "APPARPQ", "APPARCQ", "SHELTPQ", "SHELTCQ", "UTILPQ", "UTILCQ", "TELEPHPQ", "TELEPHCQ", "EMRTPNOP", "EMRTPNOC", "MRTPRNOP", "MRTPRNOC" ], "national_anchor_year": 2025, "national_formula": "published_origin * replication_target / replication_origin; published historical thresholds returned directly", "policy": { "annualization": "quarter4", "median_share": 0.82, "mortgage_principal": "include", "tenure_policy": "exclude_5_6_code3_mortgage", "youth_policy": "exclude_unresolved" }, "price_source": { "annual_growth_by_year": { "2026": 0.029248273765579702, "2027": 0.025475653015156308, "2028": 0.023614294950919934, "2029": 0.022880029859745354, "2030": 0.022634899961825994, "2031": 0.022586789925561623, "2032": 0.02257372697332216, "2033": 0.02256625901981013, "2034": 0.022566253555256655, "2035": 0.022570320442821146 }, "cbo_index_levels": { "2023": 304.704, "2024": 313.697, "2025": 322.378, "2026": 331.807, "2027": 340.26, "2028": 348.295, "2029": 356.264, "2030": 364.328, "2031": 372.557, "2032": 380.967, "2033": 389.564, "2034": 398.355, "2035": 407.346, "2036": 416.542 }, "component_assumption": "Apply aggregate CPI-U growth uniformly to all future CE price components; not CBO component forecasts", "formula": "CBO_level[y]/CBO_level[y-1]-1; future growth applied to observed BLS2025 anchor", "rent_assumption": "Baseline nominal rent growth equals this CPI-U path; same path deflates future rent cohorts; not CBO local rent forecasts", "series": "cpiu", "source_repository_commit": "284a95665f9f2f74ed1f482feb629b43fce323da", "source_vintage": "2026-02", "units": "Index,1982-84=100; calendar-year average" }, "price_weights": "Historical bridge and training weights frozen at origin five-year CE window; each target estimator recalculates its future-window CPI component weights", "real_growth": "Uniform component scaling exp(real_log_rate * donor-to-target year difference); composition repeats, no full behavioral response", "reference_year_window": "(T-5)Q2 through TQ1; SPM reference year, not publication year", "remaining_deflator": "After donor collection-year to projected collection-year scaling, estimator applies only projected collection-year to threshold-year inflation", "research_approximations": [ "Annual instead of quarterly CPI by collection year", "FMLI combined GROCER food allocation approximation; internet and in-kind imputations omitted", "Unresolved youth exclusion and tenure 3/5/6 policies; BLS percentile-code parity unverified", "Frozen origin bridge does not exactly match every target's recalculated CPI weights", "Synthetic donor repetitions are not independent observations" ], "share_anchor_year": 2025, "uncertainty": "Not estimated; OLS slope SE is a fit diagnostic only" }, "backtest": { "assumptions": [ "Retrospective conditional on realized annual CPI, including 2025 eleven-month average; not contemporaneous-vintage price forecasts", "Corrected revised-method origin-specific anchors, including 2019 Revised, never 2019 Published", "Overall MAPE weights 63 fold-tenure observations equally; more short-horizon folds emphasize shorter horizons", "Horizon-balanced MAPE averages horizons 1..5 equally; horizon 6 is supplemental", "ce_trend shrinkage 0.5 and default selected independently of scores; no claim of unbiased tuned-model selection", "Current source vintages with original CE release/revision dates unknown" ], "baseline": { "by_tenure": { "owner_with_mortgage": { "mean_absolute_error": 2136.408373590765, 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