{ "classification": "current_retrospective_research", "code_sha256": { "scripts/replicate_current_ce.py": "4168c0a432c8eb2d63fbfa65aa0b9bc7f4906e4dba397df67149cf3c7207305a", "spm_calculator/ce_threshold.py": "2a43c93460d03f54ef7e589dfc7411069ceabf91ed8e234ceeb004da1ed3ad84", "spm_calculator/equivalence_scale.py": "95c797adca4811b0a2c4202e8471f6cd46fcd259bf46b34da74588ab08b41326", "spm_calculator/fcsuti_cpi.py": "cf8fbe9103846d83a280bcd4f13b9ddd91e8baa94e2668b9ef288c7cc980a5fc", "spm_calculator/forecast.py": "367c124844976e557484c6591c49c7ebca8c87a27828b29999b64f02989da597", "spm_calculator/projection.py": "a7b0c6935f3cdf857e6cffc941cbe4fef9607c460a20e0ba8da72a19c6a60340" }, "cpi_input": { "note": "Annual averages (BLS period M13 where API-sourced; means of NSA monthlies where FRED-sourced). 2025 values are computed over eleven months \u2014 the October 2025 CPI release was not published during the federal shutdown \u2014 matching BLS's official 2025 annual averages.", "path": "spm_calculator/data/bls/cpi_annual.json", "retrieved": "2026-07-18", "sha256": "03f0214e6b8393292ad3c412651fd7df0d8a36aaf5125f77c0bb65b3f10ca104", "sources": { "CUUR0000SA0": "FRED CPIAUCNS (annual mean)", "CUUR0000SAA": "FRED CPIAPPNS (annual mean)", "CUUR0000SAF": "FRED CPIFABNS (annual mean)", "CUUR0000SAF11": "FRED CUSR0000SAF11 (annual mean)", "CUUR0000SAH1": "FRED CUUR0000SAH1 (annual mean)", "CUUR0000SAH2": "FRED CUUR0000SAH2 (annual mean)", "CUUR0000SEED": "FRED CUUR0000SEED (annual mean)", "CUUR0000SEFV": "FRED CUUR0000SEFV (annual mean)" } }, "frozen_commitments_modified": false, "generated_by": "scripts/replicate_current_ce.py", "generated_on": "2026-09-08", "git_head": "dc88395ea8292dbbacbb9880d5aea19228ee13d8", "limitations": [ "Youth sensitivity compares explicit assumptions; it does not identify the correct BLS classification", "Tenure sensitivity changes assignment/exclusion policy; official BLS handling remains unverified", "Annual CPI treatment, post-redesign food allocation, internet/benefit omissions and percentile convention remain approximations", "No sampling replicate weights or imputation uncertainty estimated", "CE original publication/revision dates are unknown; these are current cached vintages, not reconstructed real-time inputs", "Raw weight sums are CU-interview mass over overlapping windows, not unique national population totals", "No new 2026 forecast or commitment is made" ], "projection_evaluation": { "classification": "retrospective_current_method_not_a_frozen_commitment", "information_date_policy": "All observations conservatively dated at this replay; no historical release dates inferred", "price_method_note": "Static FCSUti component weights rebased to each prior year; differs from frozen backtest's fixed 2019 price base", "rows": [ { "errors_percent": { "owner_with_mortgage": -1.2734302518517815, "owner_without_mortgage": -1.7099426247275007, "renter": -2.3655114297687185 }, "mean_absolute_error_percent": 1.7829614354493337, "projection": { "as_of": "2026-09-08", "base_year": 2019, "blend_weight": null, "evaluation_mode": "retrospective", "growth_factors": { "owner_with_mortgage": 1.0123368419405687, "owner_without_mortgage": 1.0123368419405687, "renter": 1.0123368419405687 }, "inputs": { "official_base": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "published", "methodology_id": "bls-corrected-2026-07-17-continuation", "source_id": "corrected-canonical-threshold-series", "values": { "owner_with_mortgage": 29076.17484, "owner_without_mortgage": 24514.952286, "renter": 28913.050035 }, "year": 2019 }, "price_base": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "price", "methodology_id": "cpi_u", "source_id": "pinned-cpi", "values": 100.0, "year": 2019 }, "price_target": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "price", "methodology_id": "cpi_u", "source_id": "pinned-cpi", "values": 101.23368419405688, "year": 2020 } }, "methodology_id": "anchored_price_only_v1", "target_year": 2020, "thresholds": { "owner_with_mortgage": 29434.88301323742, "owner_without_mortgage": 24817.389377532967, "renter": 29269.74576330155 }, "uncertainty": { "reason": "Input uncertainty and forecast errors not estimated", "status": "unavailable" } }, "rule": "cpi_u", "target_year": 2020 }, { "errors_percent": { "owner_with_mortgage": -0.38114938041295954, "owner_without_mortgage": -0.8216069084931776, "renter": -1.4831006788820433 }, "mean_absolute_error_percent": 0.8952856559293935, "projection": { "as_of": "2026-09-08", "base_year": 2019, "blend_weight": null, "evaluation_mode": "retrospective", "growth_factors": { "owner_with_mortgage": 1.0214862411531682, "owner_without_mortgage": 1.0214862411531682, "renter": 1.0214862411531682 }, "inputs": { "official_base": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "published", "methodology_id": "bls-corrected-2026-07-17-continuation", "source_id": "corrected-canonical-threshold-series", "values": { "owner_with_mortgage": 29076.17484, "owner_without_mortgage": 24514.952286, "renter": 28913.050035 }, "year": 2019 }, "price_base": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "price", "methodology_id": "static_fcsuti_rebased_prior_year", "source_id": "pinned-cpi", "values": 100.0, "year": 2019 }, "price_target": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "price", "methodology_id": "static_fcsuti_rebased_prior_year", "source_id": "pinned-cpi", "values": 102.14862411531682, "year": 2020 } }, "methodology_id": "anchored_price_only_v1", "target_year": 2020, "thresholds": { "owner_with_mortgage": 29700.91254442392, "owner_without_mortgage": 25041.686462675407, "renter": 29534.28280052563 }, "uncertainty": { "reason": "Input uncertainty and forecast errors not estimated", "status": "unavailable" } }, "rule": "fcsuti_cpi", "target_year": 2020 }, { "errors_percent": { "owner_with_mortgage": -0.025937780798090948, "owner_without_mortgage": 0.7711535668682767, "renter": -0.33636099365565997 }, "mean_absolute_error_percent": 0.37781744710734255, "projection": { 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"methodology_id": "ce-fmli-research-v1:9b0ac2584036d8cf22989b08b14bde56b986c438c987abac56f633432fd3ce28", "source_id": "current-ce-2020", "values": { "owner_with_mortgage": 29310.06069901625, "owner_without_mortgage": 25189.716094517025, "renter": 29543.06857115096 }, "year": 2020 } }, "methodology_id": "anchored_replication_ratio_v1", "target_year": 2020, "thresholds": { "owner_with_mortgage": 29806.817286240446, "owner_without_mortgage": 25443.84470693475, "renter": 29878.062744834147 }, "uncertainty": { "reason": "Input uncertainty and forecast errors not estimated", "status": "unavailable" } }, "rule": "replication_ratio", "target_year": 2020 }, { "errors_percent": { "owner_with_mortgage": -0.20354358060553635, "owner_without_mortgage": -0.02522667081247265, "renter": -0.9097308362688517 }, "mean_absolute_error_percent": 0.37950036256228686, "projection": { "as_of": "2026-09-08", "base_year": 2019, "blend_weight": 0.5, "evaluation_mode": "retrospective", "growth_factors": { "owner_with_mortgage": 1.023307401302316, "owner_without_mortgage": 1.0296885464150267, "renter": 1.0274313065110665 }, "inputs": { "official_base": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "published", "methodology_id": "bls-corrected-2026-07-17-continuation", "source_id": "corrected-canonical-threshold-series", "values": { "owner_with_mortgage": 29076.17484, "owner_without_mortgage": 24514.952286, "renter": 28913.050035 }, "year": 2019 }, "price_base": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "price", "methodology_id": "static_fcsuti_rebased_prior_year", "source_id": "pinned-cpi", "values": 100.0, "year": 2019 }, "price_target": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "price", "methodology_id": "static_fcsuti_rebased_prior_year", "source_id": "pinned-cpi", "values": 102.14862411531682, "year": 2020 }, "replicated_base": { "available_on": "2026-09-08", "kind": "replication", "methodology_id": "ce-fmli-research-v1:9b0ac2584036d8cf22989b08b14bde56b986c438c987abac56f633432fd3ce28", 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